Ocean Rise, Saltwater Intrusion, and the Future of Mississippi Navigation

As the level of the Mississippi falls this year, it allows saltwater to move up the channel:

http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2012/07/saltwater_wedge_moving_up_the.html

This will create problems if the river flow gets low enough to allow the salt water to reach the New Orleans drinking water treatment inflow. As the story reminds us, at low water the Mississippi is less than 2 feet above sea level in New Orleans. As the region subsides, and ocean rises, this will decrease. As it approaches sea level, the salt water intrusion will become more severe. While it can be cured by building a sediment damn, that damn will be very problematic for new ships that will be coming through the deepened Panama Canal. As Professor Rogers discusses in this paper, the rising sea level makes it much more difficult to keep the Mississippi dredged to current levels, and may make it impossible to keep it dredged for deeper draft ships:

J. Rogers, The Degrading Mississippi Delta: How Much Longer Can it be Sustained?, 15 Geo-Strata Geo Institute of ASCE 24-29.

 

A Dutch perspective on coastal Louisiana flood risk

This is an interesting report commissioned by the United States Army’s London office. It assumes 2 feet of ocean rise over the next 100 years, and while it mentions subsidence, it does change its calculations based on subsidence in Louisiana. Since coastal subsidence may be a meter or more over the next 100 years, this is a crucial omission. In general, its proposals might work for Holland, but do not seem well suited to geology of Louisiana and the threat of hurricanes.

Dijkman, J. (2007). A Dutch perspective on coastal Louisiana flood risk reduction and landscape stabilization. London, England. 

Is Mississippi River Water Toxic Waste?

Mississippi River Water Quality and the Clean Water Act: Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities, National Research Council (2008)

This report focuses on water quality problems in the Mississippi River and the ability of the Clean Water Act to address them. Data needs and system monitoring, water quality indicators and standards, and policies and implementation are addressed (the full statement of task to this committee is contained in Chapter 1). The geographic focus of this report is the 10- state mainstem Mississippi River corridor and areas of the Gulf of Mexico affected by Mississippi River discharge. Water quality in the Mississippi River and the northern Gulf of Mexico, however, is affected by activities from across the entire river basin. Comprehensive Mississippi River water quality management programs therefore must consider the sources of pollutant discharges in all tributary streams, as well as along the river’s mainstem. This report therefore also discusses landforms, land use changes, and land and water management practices across the Mississippi River basin that affect mainstem water quality.

5th Circuit Upholds Ruling in Katrina Levee Breaches Litigation – Update – Case rejected

Update: Court dismisses Katrina Levee Breach cases under FTCA – In re Katrina Canal Breaches Litigation, 696 F.3d 436 (5th Cir.(La.) 2012)

Additional cases and commentary

The 5th Circuit just affirmed the lower court decision in the Katrina Levee Breaches Litigation. The Court basically rejected Flood Control Act immunity unless the “damages result from waters released by flood control activity or negligence therein.”

The opinion

If this case is not overruled en banc, or by the Supreme Court, it will have a devastating effect on coastal wetlands. As I argue in the article linked below, this ruling will force the Corps into building levees everywhere that hurricane surge might threaten a populated area. These barriers will prevent wetlands from migrating inland as the ocean rises, leaving major sections of the coast with the ocean breaking against a levee and no coastal wetlands.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2004679

 

Study of the Economic Effects of Charging Actuarially Based Premium Rates for Pre-FIRM Structures

This report presents the results of a study on the economic effects of charging actuarially
based premiums for pre-FIRM (Flood Insurance Rate Map) structures. The study was
performed in response to Section 578 of the National Flood Insurance Reform Act of 1994,
which required FEMA to “conduct a study of the economic effects that would result from
increasing the premium rates for flood insurance coverage made available under the National
Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) for pre-FIRM structures to the full actuarial risk based
premium.”

https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/blaw/FEMA/NFIP-1999-finalreport.pdf

 

 

Climate and large scale scale human crisis

 https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/climate/docs/PNAS-2011-Zhang-1104268108.pdf (original link)

Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500–1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560–1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined “golden” and “dark” ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.

Climate Change Adaptation and the Structural Transformation of Environmental Law

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1517374 or https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/climate/docs/ssrn-id1517374.pdf

The path of environmental law has come to a cliff called climate change, and there is no turning around. As climate change policy dialogue emerged in the 1990s, however, the perceived urgency of attention to mitigation strategies designed to regulate sources of greenhouse gas emissions quickly snuffed out meaningful progress on the formulation of adaptation strategies designed to respond to the effects of climate change on humans and the environment. Only recently has this “adaptation deficit” become a concern now actively included in climate change policy debate. Previously treating talk of adaptation as taboo, the climate change policy world has begrudgingly accepted it into the fold as the reality of failed efforts to achieve global mitigation policy has combined with the scientific evidence that committed warming will continue the trend of climate change well into the future regardless of mitigation policy success.

But do not expect adaptation policy to play out for environmental law the way mitigation policy has and is likely to continue. Mitigation policy has been framed as an initiative primarily within the domain of environmental law – a form of pollution control on steroids – and thus it will be environmental law that makes the first move and other policy realms that apply support or pushback. By contrast, environmental law does not “own” adaptation policy; rather, numerous policy fronts will compete simultaneously for primacy and priority as people demand protection from harms and enjoyment of benefits that play out as climate change moves relentlessly forward. This makes it all the more pressing for environmental law, early in the nation’s formulation of adaptation policy, to find its voice and establish its place in the effort to close the adaptation deficit.

Toward that purpose, this Article examines the context and policy dynamics of climate change adaptation and identifies ten trends that will have profound normative and structural impacts on how environmental law fits in: 1) Shift in emphasis from preservationism to transitionalism in natural resources conservation policy. 2) Rapid evolution of property rights and liability rules associated with natural capital adaptation resources. 3) Accelerated merger of water law, land use law, and environmental law. 4) Incorporation of a human rights dimension in climate change adaptation policy. 5) Catastrophe and crisis avoidance and management as an overarching adaptation policy priority. 6) Frequent reconfigurations of trans-policy linkages and trade-offs at all scales and across scales. 7) Shift from “front end” decision methods relying on robust predictive capacity to “back end” decision methods relying on active adaptive management. 8) Greater variety and flexibility in regulatory instruments 9) Increased reliance on multi-scalar governance networks. 10) Conciliation.

States plan to develop land most vulnerable to ocean rise

Rising sea level threatens existing coastal wetlands. Overall ecosystems could often survive by migrating inland, if adjacent lands remained vacant. On the basis of 131 state and local land use plans, we estimate that almost 60% of the land below 1 m along the US Atlantic coast is expected to be developed and thus unavailable for the inland migration of wetlands. Less than 10% of the land below 1 m has been set aside for conservation.

Florida’s Financial Exposure from Its “Self-Insurance” Programs

Florida’s current homeowner’s insurance system is broken. One major hurricane has the potential to bankrupt private insurers, and the State’s self-insurance programs, devastating Florida’s already weakened economy (Miami Herald, 21 Sept 2009). State officials are certainly aware of the problem, as voiced in an op-ed by State Senator J.D. Alexander (Tallahassee Democrat, 25 Oct 2009). In her letter to Florida TaxWatch dated 24 October 2008, the Honorable Alex Sink, Chief Financial Officer for the State of Florida, expressed her concerns about the State’s financial security in the event of a major windstorm (Appendix A). She requested an economic analysis that would explore Florida’s financial exposure from its self-insurance programs, Citizens Property Insurance Corporation (Citizens) and the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund (FHCF).

Florida’s Financial Exposure from Its “Self-Insurance” Programs, April 2010