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On June 11, Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced “A Stronger, More Resilient New York”, a comprehensive plan that contains actionable recommendations both for rebuilding the communities impacted by Sandy and increasing the resilience of infrastructure and buildings citywide. If you would like a hard copy of the report, it is available for purchase by accessing the CityStore website. You can also download the report for free below. Due to the size of this report, several options are available for those who wish to print the report, including both single pages and two-page spreads. Single pages print best on Letter-sized paper, while two-page spreads print best on Ledger-sized paper. You can read the entire report by clicking one of the links below (in PDF): Whole Report – Low-Resolution (Single Page) Whole Report – Low-Resolution (Spread) Whole Report – High-Resolution (Single Page) Whole Report – High-Resolution (Spread) High-resolution versions of individual chapters are available as single-page PDFs by clicking on the links below. Citywide Infrastructure and the Built Environment
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Global Estimates 2012 – People displaced by disasters
Global Estimates 2012 – People displaced by disasters
The displacement of people by the risk and impact of disasters is a concern for policymakers in both rich and poor countries worldwide. Since 2009, the Norwegian Refugee Council’s Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) has been providing global estimates of the number of people displaced each year to inform policy and measures by governments and other humanitarian and development actors that address the risk of displacement and ensure vulnerable displaced people are protected. This year’s report presents new findings for displacement during 2012 and analysis drawn from five years of data compiled by IDMC. As with previous years, estimates were determined by collecting, cross-checking and analysing secondary data from an expanding range of sources related to rapid-onset weather-related and geophysical hazard events. Statistical data is complemented by research on specific countries, situations and types of disasters.
In 2012, an estimated 32.4 million people in 82 countries were newly displaced by disasters associated with natural hazard events. Over five years from 2008 to 2012, around 144 million people were forced from their homes in 125 countries. Around three-quarters of these countries were affected by multiple disaster-induced displacement events over the period. Repeated displacement sets back recovery and development gains, undermines resilience and compounds vulnerability to further disaster.
Climate Change: Future Federal Adaptation Efforts Could Better Support Local Infrastructure Decision Makers
According to the National Research Council (NRC) and others, infrastructure such as roads and bridges, wastewater systems, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) centers are vulnerable to changes in the climate. Changes in precipitation and sea levels, as well as increased intensity and frequency of extreme events, are projected by NRC and others to impact infrastructure in a variety of ways. When the climate changes, infrastructure– typically designed to operate within past climate conditions–may not operate as well or for as long as planned, leading to economic, environmental, and social impacts. For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates that, within 15 years, segments of Louisiana State Highway 1– providing the only road access to a port servicing 18 percent of the nation’s oil supply–will be inundated by tides an average of 30 times annually due to relative sea level rise. Flooding of this road effectively closes the port.
Decision makers have not systematically considered climate change in infrastructure planning for various reasons, according to representatives of professional associations and agency officials who work with these decision makers. For example, more immediate priorities–such as managing aging infrastructure–consume time and resources, limiting decision makers’ ability to consider and implement climate adaptation measures. Difficulties in obtaining and using information needed to understand vulnerabilities and inform adaptation decisions pose additional challenges.
Key factors enabled some local decision makers to integrate climate change into infrastructure planning. As illustrated by GAO’s site visits and relevant studies, these factors included (1) having local circumstances such as weather-related crises that spurred action, (2) learning how to use available information, (3) having access to local expertise, and (4) considering climate impacts within existing planning processes. As one example, the Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District managed risks associated with more frequent extreme rainfall events by enhancing its natural systems’ ability to absorb runoff by, for instance, preserving wetlands. This effort simultaneously expanded the sewer system’s capacity while providing other community and environmental benefits. District leaders enabled these changes by prioritizing adaptation, using available locallevel climate projections, and utilizing local experts for assistance.
GAO’s report identifies several emerging federal efforts under way to facilitate more informed adaptation decisions, but these efforts could better support the needs of local infrastructure decision makers in the future, according to studies, local decision makers at the sites GAO visited, and other stakeholders. For example, among its key efforts, the federal government plays a critical role in producing the information needed to facilitate more informed local infrastructure adaptation decisions. However, as noted by NRC studies, this information exists in an uncoordinated confederation of networks and institutions, and the end result of it not being easily accessible is that people may make decisions–or choose not to act–without it. Accordingly, a range of studies and local decision makers GAO interviewed cited the need for the federal government to improve local decision makers’ access to the best available information to use in infrastructure planning.
The CPRA case for diversions and levees
The Use of Mississippi River Sediment for Restoration Projects in Louisiana – Russ J. Joffrion, PE, Engineer Manager, Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority Engineering Division
Hurricane Betsy Resources
Hurricane Betsy: Preliminary Report, with Advisories and Bulletins Issued, September 15th, 1965
Forrest, Thomas R., Hurricane, Betsy, 1965; A Selective Analysis Of Organizational Response In The New Orleans Area, Disaster Research Center (1979) (catalog entry and original link)
Hurricanes – Science and Society: Hurricane Betsy
Mississippi River Freshwater Diversions in Southern Louisiana – 2012
Environmental Report for the Inner Harbor Levee Improvements
The Pontchartrain Levee District Progress Report – 2012
The Pontchartrain Levee District Progress Report – 2012
From the Report:
The Pontchartrain Levee District (PLD) is the local sponsor for the projects referenced herein. Currently, there are projects in each of the six parishes comprising the PLD’s jurisdiction. As presented in more detail throughout this report, ongoing feasibility studies are underway for many projects, some of which are federally authorized, and many where the PLD has assumed full responsibility at the local level. Additionally, several projects are currently under construction, which when completed, will provide the East Bank community of St. Charles Parish with increased protection from storm induced flooding and rainfall events.
The total cost of these projects is estimated to be $750,000,000. “e PLD is confident that the findings and recommendations in the ongoing studies will establish the forward path for future construction of critical drainage, coastal restoration and hurricane protection projects. An integral part of several of the local studies includes the incorporation of recreational features which provide economic opportunities and a better quality of life for the citizens residing on the east side of the Mississippi River in the Parishes of St. Charles, St. John the Baptist, St. James, Ascension, Iberville and East Baton Rouge.
The PLD appreciates the interest and support of the Congressional Delegation, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) and state and local government with regard to these projects.
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Comments – These projects will provide little or no protection against large storms, but will destroy the wetlands in front of them and hasten the subsidence of the land behind them. Their real hope is that the Federal government will take them over and raise them, at enormously increased cost.
Comprehensive environmental study of post-Katrina levees
The Army Corps of Engineers is hosting a public meeting Tuesday evening to explain the comprehensive environmental document developed for the improvements made to the New Orleans area hurricane levee system.
The document takes the place of a comprehensive environmental impact statement for the levee improvements, and was allowed by the White House Council on Environmental Quality when it became clear that an alternative environmental assessment process was needed to deal with the multiple construction projects that made up the levee improvements.
http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2013/03/comprehensive_environmental_st.html
Subsidence in coastal Louisiana: causes, rates, and effects on wetlands – 1983
Summary
Coastal wetlands are being lost at a rapid and accelerating rate in Louisiana. Much of this loss is attributable to a relative lowering of the wetland surface below the level adequate to support emergent vegetation. Although global sea level has risen only slowly (about 1.5 mm/yr) during the past century, sea level may rise more rapidly due to warming induced by the buildup of C02 in the atmosphere. Currently, apparent sea level along coastal Louisiana as reflected in tide gauge records, has risen more than five times faster than global sea level due to subsidence of thick unconsolidated sediments.
Such rapid subsidence is a natural phenomenon related to the progradation and abandonment of distributary lobes of the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain. For a considerable period after abandonment of new sediment sources, wetlands are able to keep pace with subsidence by accreting sediments reworked by marine processes. But inundation of interior wetlands removed from such an active sediment supply, wave exposure, and saltwater intrusion eventually result in deterioration of the wetlands. Human activities may accelerate this process by disrupting sediment supplies for wetland accretion, raising global sea level, causing saltwater intrusion, and withdrawals of subsurface materials.
Present subsidence rates from tide gauge records exceed 40 mm/yr at the modern Mississippi River Delta and approximate I 0 mm/yr in wetlands near the gulf coast. Subsidence rates over the last I ,000 years appear to have been half the rates presently observed. This either results from natural variability, inaccuracy of tide gauge records, or human influences. The effect of the high rate of increase in locally apparent sea level on wetlands is difficult to quantitatively predict because of local variations in subsidence and accretion, uncertainty regarding future global sea level, and lack of knowledge of the accretionary limits of wetlands.
ASFPM Report: Flood Mapping for the Nation
ASFPM Report: Flood Mapping for the Nation
Executive Summary:
The Association of State Floodplain Managers has developed an estimate, based on a careful analysis, of the total cost to provide floodplain mapping for all communities in the nation based on the parameters specified in the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012. The Nation has invested $4.3 billion in flood mapping to date, and has enjoyed multiple benefits from that investment, including providing the basis for guiding development that saves over $1 billion/year in flood damages. ASFPM has identified criteria of what constitutes adequate flood mapping for the country, and has produced an estimate showing the initial cost to provide flood mapping for the nation ranging from $4.5 billion to $7.5 billion. The steady-state cost to then maintain accurate and up-to-date flood maps ranges from $116 million to $275 million annually.[1] This national investment in a comprehensive, updated flood map inventory for every community in the nation will drive down costs and suffering of flooding on our nation and its citizens, as well as providing the best tool for managing flood risk and building sustainable communities.
[1] These estimates do not include revenue from the Federal policy fee which is primarily used to support administrative cost including the issuance of letter of map change, program management, and data dissemination.
Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States – 2012
Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment, December 6, 2012.
Global sea level rise has been a persistent trend for decades. It is expected to continue beyond the end of this century, which will cause significant impacts in the United States. Scientists have very high confidence (greater than 90% chance) that global mean sea level will rise at least 8 inches (0.2 meter) and no more than 6.6 feet (2.0 meters) by 2100.
More than 8 million people live in areas at risk of coastal flooding. Along the U.S. Atlantic Coast alone, almost 60 percent of the land that is within a meter of sea level is planned for further development, with inadequate information on the potential rates and amount of sea level rise. Many of the nation’s assets related to military readiness, energy, commerce, and ecosystems that support resource-dependent economies are already located at or near the ocean, thus exposing them to risks associated with sea level rise.
These are the among the findings presented in this new report, published by NOAA’s Climate Program Office in collaboration with twelve contributing authors from ten different federal and academic science institutions—including NOAA, NASA, the U.S. Geological Survey, the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Columbia University, the University of Maryland, the University of Florida, and the South Florida Water Management District.
The report was produced in response to a request from the U.S. National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee. It provides a synthesis of the scientific literature on global sea level rise, and a set of four scenarios of future global sea level rise. The report includes input from national experts in climate science, physical coastal processes, and coastal management.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are “scenarios”? The term “scenarios” describes qualitative and quantitative information about different aspects of future environmental change to investigate the potential consequences for society. Scenarios do not predict future changes, but describe future potential conditions in a manner that supports decision-making under conditions of uncertainty.
How do you use scenarios? Scenarios are used to develop and test decisions under a variety of plausible futures. This approach strengthens an organization’s ability to recognize, adapt to, and take advantage of changes over time. This report provides scenarios to help assessment experts and their stakeholders analyze the vulnerabilities and impacts associated with possible, uncertain futures.
Which scenario is most likely? Given the range of uncertainty in future global SLR, using multiple scenarios encourages experts and decision makers to consider multiple future conditions and to develop multiple response options. Scenario planning offers an opportunity to initiate actions now that may reduce future impacts and vulnerabilities. Thus, specific probabilities or likelihoods are not assigned to individual scenarios in this report, and none of these scenarios should be used in isolation.
What is the basis of the range of scenarios for global mean sea level rise? We have very high confidence (greater than 9 in 10 chances) that global mean sea level (based on mean sea level in 1992) will rise at least 8 inches (0.2 meters) and no more than 6.6 feet (2 meters) by 2100. The biggest source of uncertainty within this range is the contribution of water from melting ice sheets and glaciers in Greenland and West Antarctica.
The lowest sea level change scenario (8 inch rise) is based on historic rates of observed sea level change. This scenario should be considered where there is a high tolerance for risk (e.g. projects with a short lifespan or flexibility to adapt within the near-term) The intermediate-low scenario (1.6 feet) is based on projected ocean warming The intermediate-high scenario (3.9 feet) is based on projected ocean warming and recent ice sheet loss The highest sea level change scenario (6.6 foot rise) reflects ocean warming and the maximum plausible contribution of ice sheet loss and glacial melting. This highest scenario should be considered in situations where there is little tolerance for risk. The actual amount of sea level change at any one region and location will vary greatly in response to regional and local vertical land movement and ocean dynamics. Parts of the Gulf Coast and the Chesapeake Bay will continue to experience the most rapid and highest amounts of sea level rise, as the land in some of these areas is subsiding, and adding to the overall “net” sea level rise. Parts of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest may experience much less sea level change or none at all, as the land in some of these areas is still rebounding from the last glaciation at a faster rate than sea level rise. It is certain that higher mean sea levels increase the frequency, magnitude, and duration of flooding associated with a given storm. Flooding has disproportionately high impacts in most coastal regions, particularly in flat, low-lying areas. Regardless of how much warming occurs over the next 100 years, sea level rise is not expected to stop in 2100.