Global Carbon Budget 2014: An Annual Update of the Global Carbon Budget and Trends

Global Carbon Budget 2014 – slides

Global Carbon Budget 2014: An Annual Update of the Global Carbon Budget and Trends
Source: Global Carbon Project

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production increased by 2.3% in 2013, with a total of 9.9±0.5 GtC (billion tonnes of carbon) (36 GtCO2) emitted to the atmosphere, 61% above 1990 emissions (the Kyoto Protocol reference year). Emissions are projected to increase by a further 2.5% in 2014. In 2013, the ocean and land carbon sinks respectively removed 27% and 23% of total CO2 (fossil fuel and land use change), leaving 50% of emissions into the atmosphere. The ocean sink in 2013 was 2.9±0.5 GtC, slightly above the 2004-2013 average of 2.6±0.5, and the land sink was 2.5±0.9 GtC slightly below the 2004-2013 average of 2.9±0.8. Total cumulative emissions from 1870 to 2013 were 390±20 GtC from fossil fuels and cement, and 145± 50 from land use change. The total of 535±55GtC was partitioned among the atmosphere (225±5 GtC), ocean (150±20 GtC), and the land (155±60 GtC).

In 2013, global CO2 emissions were dominated by emissions from China (28%), the USA (14%), the EU (28 member states; 10%) and India (7%). Growth rates of these countries from 2012 to 2013 were 4.2% for China, 2.9% for the USA, −1.8% for the EU28, and 5.1% for India. The per-capita CO2 emissions in 2013 were 1.4 tonnes of carbon person-1yr-1 (5.1 tCO2) for the globe, 4.5 (16.4 tCO2) for the USA, 2.0 (7.2 tCO2) for China, 1.9 (6.8 tCO2) for the EU28, and 0.5 (1.9 tCO2) for India.

The countries contributing most to the 2013 change in emissions were China (58% increase), USA (20% increase), India (17% increase), and EU28 (11% decrease).

In 1990, 62% of global emissions were emitted in Annex B countries (developed countries), 34% in non-Annex B (developing countries), and 4% in bunker fuels used for international shipping and aviation. In 2013, 36% of emissions were emitted in Annex B countries, and 58% in non-Annex B countries.

Vermont Environmentalists File FTC Challenge over “Double-Counting” RECs

Represented by Patrick A. Parenteau and Douglas A. Ruley of the Vermont Law School’s Environmental and Natural Resources Law Clinic, four Vermont residents have petitioned the FTC to investigate alleged misleading marketing practices by Green Mountain Power regarding their provision of renewable energy. The petition contends that Green Mountain has engaged in misleading practices by marketing their power to Vermont consumers as “renewable” even while selling the renewable attributes of the power to other utilities (who in turn use them to supplement the amount of their own electricity they can claim as “renewable”).

Read original post

Petition – Vermont Environmentalists File FTC Challenge over “Double-Counting” RECs

FTC Green Guide to Responsible Green Marketing

Murray Energy Challenge of EPA GHG Rulemaking

In re: Murray Energy Corporation, Docket No. 14-01112 (D.C. Cir. Jun 18, 2014)

This is an attack on the rulemaking itself, arguing that an inconsistency between the House and Senate versions of the applicable Clean Air provisions makes it impossible for EPA to make these rules.

Petition

West Virginia, et. al amicus

Order for EPA to answer the complaint

In re: Murray Energy Corporation, Docket No. 14-01112 (D.C. Cir. Jun 18, 2014) – EPA Reply Brief

In re: Murray Energy Corporation, Docket No. 14-01112 – Environmental Law Professor’s Amicus Brief in support of EPA

Brief in West Virginia v EPA, a companion case: Brief of the Institute for Policy Integrity at New York University School of Law as amicus curiae in support of the EPA.

AGs’ letter in Murray Energy – This argues to the court that the EPA has admitted that they public comment process is just a sham because they are set on the rule.

The Delta Cycle and the Future of Coastal Louisiana

Chris McLindon and Edward Richards – Board of Commissioners of SLFPA-E vs. Tennessee Gas Pipeline Co., et.al. – Legal and Geological Evaluation (View in slide show mode to see the animations.)

This is a summary presentation of the issues:

Time and River:Coastal Restoration as Climate Change Denial, Tulane Environmental Forum, 21 Feb 2014, New Orleans, LA.

The following are annotated presentations for personal viewing. They should be reviewed in slide show mode to see the animations.

Chris McLindon – Rethinking Coastal Restoration: The Delta Cycle and Land Area Change in the Louisiana Coastal Plain

A proposal to assess the impacts of relative sea level rise due to subsidence using industry knowledge base, data and technology. The New Orleans Geological Society, November 2015

 

Marshes on the Move – Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Wetlands

Marshes on the move – a managers guide to understanding and using model results depicting impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetlands

The scientific community is generally in agreement that global sea level is rising and coastal wetlands are changing as a result. Depending on local conditions, coastal wetlands may disappear under the rising seas, persist in their current locations, or migrate inland. In many places, these changes have important ramifications for the ecosystem and economy. Understanding where and how coastal environments could change in response to sea level rise, however, is a complex challenge dependent upon many factors—from interdependent ecological processes to data quality and availability. As a result, resource managers and other coastal decision-makers need appropriate tools that can help them to anticipate and prepare for the future effects of sea level rise on coastal wetlands.

Many models and methods are being used for this purpose. Managers and other professionals with oversight responsibility for coastal resources are often presented with model outputs in the form of maps that illustrate projected sea level rise and potential loss or migration of coastal wetlands. These maps or visualizations may appear to provide a definitive picture, when in fact each represents a collection of assumptions, compromises, and simplifications based on the amount and quality of available data and information and on the model’s purpose. As a result, it can be challenging to interpret model results and to use the information appropriately.

This document is intended for people who need to use model outputs for decision-making but who do not build models themselves. It provides a basic understanding of the parameters and uncertainties involved in modeling the future impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetlands. This is a first step toward informed use and communication of these models to support a range of sea level rise adaptation activities—from stakeholder education to habitat management to land conservation. Equipped with this conceptual understanding, managers and planners will be able to more effectively

• ask the right questions of technical specialists regarding model use and results,

• evaluate the real-world implications of model results, and

• incorporate modeling results into management initiatives.

Hurricanes and long-term climate variability – Lloyds Risk Report

Hurricanes and long-term climate variability – Lloyds Risk Report

The severity and frequency of hurricanes are influenced by changes in the climate of the
Atlantic over the long term, and in particular, the changes over many decades of sea
surface temperatures. This is called Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV).

This variability of sea surface temperatures occurs naturally1, but is also caused by external factors, such as
volcanic eruptions and changes in man-made emissions.

Warm sea surface temperatures are a pre-condition for tropical disturbances to become
hurricanes, but atmospheric conditions are also important.

The atmosphere must have favourable winds and a seed of circular motion, be unstable to convection2 and
humid enough to make it likely that hurricanes will form. Forecasts and analyses based on the atmospheric
state, as well as Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are likely to be more accurate than those that are not.

Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability of sea surface temperatures is likely to influence
hurricane landfall regionally.

An observed increase in total hurricane activity during positive Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV) years
is likely to increase the incidence of hurricanes making landfall. It may be possible to see regional differences
in landfall risk between different AMV phases. These differences may also depend on the strength of the
storm. To achieve greater certainty, further research is required to improve the understanding of the
relationship between landfall risks and Atlantic, Pacific and global climate variability.

Some of the most damaging hurricanes may be modulated by eastern Atlantic variability –
this is linked to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM).

As the AMM includes both ocean and atmosphere variability, it can be useful as an indicator of hurricane
activity. Hurricanes that form in the eastern tropical Atlantic are probably those that are most influenced by
the AMM. As these hurricanes travel the furthest before making US landfall, they also have more time to
strengthen their winds and gain moisture

Catastrophe Modelling and Climate Change – Lloyds Risk Report

Catastrophe Modelling and Climate Change – Lloyds Risk Report

While the evidence for climate change is ‘conclusive’, risk models may not account for the phenomenon,says new Lloyd’s research.

The Catastrophe Modelling and Climate Change report finds that while climate change trends can be built into models because historical data is fed into them, the trends are not necessarily reflected in the modelling output. The report, which reviews the latest science, argues that there is a consensus that climate change is driven by human activity, but there is much less agreement on the nature and extent of the change. As a result: “Uncertainties associated with the estimation of both the extent to which climate change is occurring and the resulting change in catastrophe severities… and frequencies, means that the impact can be difficult to account for in risk models.”

Climate Change: Conceptual Approaches and Policy Tools – CRS

Climate Change: Conceptual Approaches and Policy Tools – CRS

Summary

Congress has, over the past three decades, authorized and funded federal programs to improve
understanding of climate changes and their implications. Climate changes have potentially large
economic and ecological consequences, both positive and negative, which depend on the rapidity,
size, and predictability of change. Some of the impacts of past change are evident in shifting
agricultural productivity, forest insect infestations and fires, shifts in water supply, recordbreaking
summer high temperatures, and coastal erosion and inundation.

People and natural systems respond to climate changes regardless of whether the government
responds. Over time, the consequences of climate change for the United States and the globe will
be influenced by choices made or left to others by the U.S. Congress.

Different factors contribute to climate change, their contributions depending on the time periods
and geographic locations under examination. Current scientific evidence best supports rising
atmospheric concentrations of “greenhouse gases” (GHG) (particularly carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxides) and other air pollutants as having driven the majority of global average
temperature increase since the late 1970s. The increase in concentrations is due almost entirely to
GHG emissions from human activities. Hence, the policy debate has focused on whether and how
to abate GHG emissions from human-related activities. Locally, human-related air pollution,
irrigation, the built environment, land use change, and depletion of ozone in the stratosphere may
be more important but have small overall effect on global average temperature.

Policy proposals take different approaches to setting goals or managing climate change-related
risks. This report describes four strategies for setting climate change policies: (1) research and
wait-and-see, (2) science-based goal setting, (3) economics-based policies, and (4)
incrementalism or adaptive management. Each may take into account the concerns, values, and
skepticisms of some constituencies, but each also has limitations. It is unclear whether any single
conceptual approach could cover all elements of the policy debate, though hybrid approaches may
help to build political consensus over whether and how much policy intervention is appropriate.
If climate change merits federal action, a variety of generic policy tools may be available (some
in use already) to achieve policy goals:

• regulatory, including market-based, tools to reduce GHGs;

• distribution of potential revenues from GHG programs;

• non-regulatory tools that help markets work more efficiently;

• tools to stimulate technological change;

• options to ease the economic transition to a lower GHG economy;

• instruments to encourage international actions; and

• tools to stimulate adaptation to climate change.

Analysts have elucidated the potential usefulness and limitations of each option. Many experts
have concluded that, to achieve a given policy goal, strategies using complementary policy tools
can increase cost-effectiveness, alleviate burdens on particular constituencies, and address
additional concerns of policy-makers. This report seeks to support Congress as it debates and
modifies the mix of federal programs that may influence the climate or adaptation to its changes

Evacuation Risks on the Louisiana Coast

Kent, Joshua D. “Assessing the Long-Term Impact of Subsidence and Global Climate Change on Emergency Evacuation Routes in Coastal Louisiana,” 2012.

Subsidence forecast models for coastal Louisiana were developed to estimate the change in surface elevations of evacuation routes for the years 2015, 2025, 2050, and 2100.   Geophysical and anthropogenic subsidence estimates were derived from on-going empirical studies published in contemporary scientific literature.   Forecasted elevation changes were subtracted from road surface elevation surveys.  Individual road segments estimated to have surfaces at or below 0m in elevation (NAVD-88) were quantified by road class and parish.   Additionally, the threshold for climate change susceptibility was evaluated relative to storm surge models published by the National Weather Service, which were used to identify and quantify evacuation routes vulnerable to surge inundation.   The results from this analysis are presented by parish and reveal the modeled subsidence risks for the forecast years.   Findings from this research can provide transportation engineers and emergency managers with data previously unavailable, which are applicable to evacuation modeling, hazard mitigation, environmental sustainability research, coastal restoration efforts, and more.

Reducing Coastal Risks on the East and Gulf Coasts – NRC

National Research Council. Reducing Coastal Risks on the East and Gulf Coasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2014.

National Vision Needed to Achieve Comprehensive Risk Reduction Along Atlantic and Gulf Coasts

WASHINGTON – A national vision for coastal risk management that includes a long-term view, regional solutions, and recognition of the full array of economic, social, environmental, and safety benefits that come from risk management is needed to reduce the impacts of natural disasters along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States, says a new report from the National Research Council. To support this vision, a national coastal risk assessment is needed to identify coastal areas that face the greatest threats and are high priorities for risk-reduction efforts.

The report defines coastal risk as the potential for hazards, such as storm-surge-induced flooding and wave damage, to adversely affect human health and well-being, economic conditions, infrastructure, support services, and social, environmental, and cultural resources in coastal communities. In recent years, an increase in the population and property located in hazardous areas has contributed to a dramatic rise in coastal-storm-related losses. Climate change poses additional threats to coastal communities from sea-level rise and possible increases in the strength of the most intense hurricanes.

“There is a misalignment of risk, reward, resources, and responsibility related to coastal risk management, which has led to inefficiencies and inappropriate incentives that ultimately increase coastal risk,” said Richard A. Luettich Jr., professor of marine sciences at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, and chair of the committee that wrote the report. “There is a crucial need for collaboration among federal agencies and between the federal government and the states, as well as policy changes that will help us evolve from a nation that is primarily reactive to coastal disasters into one that invests wisely in risk reduction and resilience,” he said.

Responsibilities for coastal risk reduction are spread over a number of federal, state, and local agencies, with no central leadership or unified vision. The financial burden associated with coastal storms falls largely on the federal government, and the vast majority of funding is provided only after a disaster occurs. Funding is limited for mitigation, preparedness, and planning, and little attention has been directed at prioritizing efforts at national or regional scales to better prepare for future disasters. In addition, builders and developers bear almost none of the risk, and local and state governments, which rely upon the tax revenues of coastal development, have few incentives to limit initial development or post-disaster rebuilding in hazardous areas, the report says.

Coastal risk management strategies can include built or natural infrastructure to reduce flood hazards and wave damage in at-risk areas as well as steps to move people and property out of harm’s way. Structural strategies to reduce storm-related hazards include seawalls, levees, flood walls, and storm-surge barriers, as well as beach nourishment, dune building, and restoration or expansion of natural habitats. Conversely, elevating existing structures, relocation, and land-use planning to deter future development in high-hazard areas can reduce the number of people or buildings at risk. The committee found that in the past, most risk reduction projects have focused on fortification, with few efforts to limit redevelopment in high-risk areas and steer development toward safer, lower-risk areas.

Strategies for coastal risk reduction differ in terms of their benefits, costs, and ecosystem impacts. At the local, state, and national levels, society needs to determine which investments to make and whether they are justified. One method for choosing investments is a risk-standard approach, which focuses on strategies to reduce risk below an acceptable level. Alternatively, a benefit-cost approach recommends strategies in which the benefits exceed the costs, and therefore results in varying levels of risk along the coast. The report recommends a hybrid approach that emphasizes investments that optimize net benefits, but puts constraints on what is considered acceptable risk, particularly for human fatalities and cultural and social resources, which can be difficult to account for in monetary terms.

A national perspective is needed to achieve the most benefits from federal investments and provide regional solutions, rather than piecemeal, project-by-project approaches. To achieve a national vision, the federal government should work with states to develop a national coastal risk assessment along with objectives and metrics for risk reduction to identify appropriate actions and measure progress. The resulting geographic patterns of coastal risk, represented by human fatalities, economic losses, and social impacts, could illustrate areas most in need of targeted risk reduction interventions. The assessment should include an inventory of present and future coastal conditions — especially in light of long-term sea-level rise.

Leadership at the federal level and consistent collaboration with clear delineation of responsibilities for local, state, and federal agencies is needed. The report recommends that the federal government provide stronger incentives for cost-effective coastal risk management strategies and land-use planning at the local level. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which requested the Research Council study, could also capitalize on opportunities within its existing framework, such as rigorously accounting for social and environmental costs and benefits, to support a more holistic view of coastal risk management.

The study was sponsored by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine, and National Research Council make up the National Academies. They are private, independent nonprofit institutions that provide science, technology, and health policy advice under a congressional charter granted to NAS in 1863. The National Research Council is the principal operating arm of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering. For more information, visit http://national-academies.org.

River Diversion Research Articles

The Changing Course competition for alternatives to the Master Plan

It is interesting that none of the reports by the teams were published by Changing Course groups. This is the one I was able to find:

A DELTA FOR ALL: The Baird Team (A DELTA FOR ALL: The Baird Team PDF)- a proposal to change the river channel below New Orleans.

Diversion Basics – Notes for the Expert Panel, 10 AM, Tuesday, 28 October 2014, Baton Rouge by R. Eugene Turner

An excellent overview of the science behind river diversions and why they do not build land. The starting point for learning about diversions.

Navigation Issues: Big River Coalition: Comments on Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion Permit Application (2017) – Big River Coalition

Pictorial Account and Landscape Evolution of the Crevasses near Fort St. Philip, Louisiana (Rotated Maps – Port St. Phillip crevasse study)

Factsheet – Pictorial Account and Landscape Evolution of the Crevasses near Fort St. Philip, Louisiana

This report documents how a natural diversion – a break in the river levee – lead to significant land loss, not land gain.

“Quantifying the effects of active natural and constructed crevasses is critical to the planning and success of future ecosystem restoration activities. This document provides a historical overview of landscape changes within the vicinity of the natural crevasses near Fort St. Philip, Louisiana. A significant event influencing landscape change within the Fort St. Philip study area was the breaching of the eastern levee of the Mississippi River. Initially, the river water that was diverted through these crevasse channels physically removed significant marsh areas within the study area. These initial direct impacts were succeeded by several decades of larger regional loss patterns driven by subsidence and other episodic events (e.g, hurricanes and floods), and recent localized land gains. These increases in land area are potentially the long-term results of the Fort St. Philip crevasses, and the short-term impacts of delta management activities. However, for the majority of the 1956-2008 period of analysis, the crevassing of the eastern bank of the Mississippi River levee was a loss accelerant in the Fort St. Philip area.”

Expert Panel On Diversion Planning Report 1 – PowerPoint Slides from the Presentation

Additional reports

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The first meeting of the Expert Panel on Diversion Planning and Implementation focused on uncertainty and the ways in which scientific and engineering uncertainty could be understood and reduced to the maximum extent possible. Discussions centered around six themes: (1) the importance of data, (2) the absence of analogs, (3) uncertainty in ecological outcomes, (4) uncertainty in social and economic outcomes, (5) design and operational uncertainties, and (6) framing expectations in light of uncertainties. Panel recommendations covered methods by which biophysical data should be collected and disseminated, social data that should be incorporated and linked to biophysical data, models that should be developed and used as an ensemble, coordination and communication that should be undertaken, and types of additional simulations and experiments that should be conducted.

The Louisiana Coastal Restoration Authority then said it would be going forward, seemingly in the face of this report:

http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2014/02/louisiana_coastal_authority_ap.html#incart_flyout_

Teal, J.M., R. Best, J. Caffrey, C.S. Hopkinson, K.L. McKee, J.T. Morris, S. Newman and B. Orem. 2012. Mississippi River Freshwater Diversions in Southern Louisiana: Effects on Wetland Vegetation, Soils, and Elevation. Edited by A.J. Lewitus, M. Croom, T. Davison, D.M. Kidwell, B.A. Kleiss, J.W. Pahl, and C.M. Swarzenski. Final Report to the State of Louisiana and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers through the Louisiana Coastal Area Science & Technology Program; coordinated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 49 pages.

 

River Diversions: Geologic Boundary Conditions and Other Considerations, By Dr. Harry H. Roberts Coastal Studies Institute Louisiana State University

Professor Roberts makes a convincing case that river sediment diversions are the only meaningful way to build coastal line, but that the amount of coast that can be built is very limited. At best, a small part of the coast can be preserved through the use of one or two large diversions, positioned inland, rather than at the edge of the coast. Multiple small diversions will build no meaningful land. This raises several difficult questions:

1) Where will the diversions be built?

2) Major diversions will slow river flow during floods, causing sediment to drop out in the channel which would otherwise be carried out into the gulf. This will create shoals in the river and interfere with navigation. This will require additional dredging, which may still be unable to keep the river open to an adequate depth.

2011 diversions Lessons Learned Final

This is a report prepared for the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana in 2011. It is designed to support the coastal restoration plan and should be read very critically.

Sediment Diversions for Delta Restoration (slides that go with the report)

An Assessment Of ‘Lessons Learned’ From The Operation Of Existing Freshwater Diversions In South Louisiana – 2010 (earlier draft report)

 River Diversions: Principles, Processes, Challenges and Opportunities: A Guidance Document (September 7, 2012)

This is a modeling document prepared for the Corps.

Van Beek, Johannes L. “Recommendations for freshwater diversion to Louisiana estuaries east of the Mississippi River.” (1982).

Van Beek, Johannes L., and K. J. Meyer-Arendt. Louisiana’s eroding coastline: recommendations for protection. Louisiana Department of Natural Resources, 1982.