Original Site: THE BAYLANDS ECOSYSTEM HABITAT GOALS PROJECT
This is a well thought through plan that recognizes that marshes must migrate inland and upland to accommodate sea level rise.
URS – The Direct Impact of the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet on Hurricane Storm Surge
This post has materials that explain why the MRGO did not increase the flooding of New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina.
The Digital Coast
The Digital Coast
What is the Digital Coast?
This NOAA-sponsored website is focused on helping communities address coastal issues and has become one of the most-used resources in the coastal management community. The dynamic Digital Coast Partnership, whose members represent the website’s primary user groups, keeps the effort focused on customer needs.
Are the Syrians the first official climate change refugees?
When we talk about future climate change refugees, the picture that comes to mind is starving people looking to leave a drought stricken country whose economic system has failed. Tragic, but within the international law system, these would be economic migrants who are not entitled to refugee status. The international community would try to provide some food aid, but it would play out like so many droughts or other food crises because of crop failures in Africa in the past. When you look at climate change from a national security perspective, Syria is a much more likely scenario.
Louisiana Governor Jindal Officially Declares Coastal Restoration a Denial of Climate Change
August 26, 2015
The President
1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW
Washington, DC 20500
Dear Mr. President,
This week it will be a pleasure to welcome you to the great State of Louisiana and to meet with you in the greatest city on earth – Chicago notwithstanding.
New Orleans still bears the scars of the summer of 2005. But since then we have experienced a Louisiana comeback. It has been a revival like no other in America.
There are now more people living and working in Louisiana than at any other time in the State’s history, earning higher incomes than ever before. A 25-year problem of outmigration has become a boom of in-migration of both people and employers. New Orleans has become a magnet for venture capital investment in its technology and media sectors.
Most importantly, with the New Orleans Recovery School District at its epicenter, our education system has been revolutionized. Charter schools and our scholarship program have given parents previously unthinkable choice and children unprecedented opportunity.
The soul of the city of New Orleans is the rhythm of its wonderful people. They have shown immeasurable courage to return, rebuild and reimagine a new future.
This week is a time to mourn the loss of loved ones and the passing of a period in our history. It is also a time to celebrate those whose future has become brighter in the storm’s terrible wake. There is a time and a place for politics, but this is not it.
It is therefore with disappointment that I read of the White House’s plans to make this visit part of a tour for your climate change agenda. Although I understand that your emphasis in New Orleans will – rightly – be on economic development, the temptation to stray into climate change politics should be resisted.
While you and others may be of the opinion that we can legislate away hurricanes with higher taxes, business regulations and EPA power grabs, that is not a view shared by many Louisianians.
I would ask you to respect this important time of remembrance by not inserting the divisive political agenda of liberal environmental activism.
Furthermore, the people of Louisiana have already agreed upon a pragmatic and bipartisan approach to preventing and mitigating the damage of future weather systems.
Since 2008, we have taken unprecedented efforts toward restoring Louisiana’s coastline. We have entirely reorganized the state’s coastal restoration, flood control and hurricane protection program by consolidating the missions of five different state agencies into one streamlined organization. We have prioritized projects that are best for the coast overall, as opposed to what is best for singular concerns like protection or restoration or mitigation.
We developed and passed – with bipartisan majorities – the Coastal Master Plan that lays out a resource-specific, 50-year, $50 billion plan for south Louisiana. It addresses the 1,880 square miles of land the State has lost since the 1930’s, through innovative tools such as long distance dredging and sediment diversions.
This process created a more efficient way of managing efforts by keeping funding consolidated and allowing for more impactful projects. Importantly, we have ensured all funding from the RESTORE Act will be used for coastal restoration projects.
A lecture on climate change would do nothing to improve upon what we are already doing. Quite the opposite; it would distract from the losses we have suffered, diminish the restoration efforts we have made, and overshadow the miracle that has been the Louisiana comeback. Partisan politics from Washington, D.C. are unwelcome in Louisiana at the best of times. This week it would be met with nothing but derision. I would therefore ask you to carefully consider your message.
In 2008 you were elected on a promise of hope and change. Since then, New Orleanians have delivered those things for themselves. It would be constructive to bring people together in that same spirit.
Hurricane Katrina 10 years later: Resources
Progress Report: Subsidence in the Central Valley, California
Progress Report: Subsidence in the Central Valley, California
Tom G Farr, Cathleen Jones, Zhen Liu
Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology
Executive summary Subsidence caused by groundwater pumping in the Central Valley has been a problem for decades. Over the last few years, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) has been used from satellites and aircraft to produce maps of subsidence with sensitivity of fractions of an inch. For this study, we have obtained and analyzed Japanese PALSAR data for 2006 -- 2010 and Canadian Radarsat--2 data for the period May 2014 – January 2015 and produced maps of the total subsidence for those periods. As multiple scenes were acquired during these periods, we can also produce time histories of subsidence at selected locations and transects showing how subsidence varies both spatially and temporally. Geographic Information System (GIS) files will be furnished to DWR for further analysis of the 4 dimensional subsidence time--series maps.
For both periods, two already known main subsidence bowls in the San Joaquin Valley have been mapped: The larger is centered on Corcoran and extends 60 miles to the NW, affecting the California Aqueduct. For the period 2006 -- 2010, maximum total subsidence was found to be about 37” near Corcoran. From May 2014 – January 2015, maximum subsidence of over 13” was found just SE of Corcoran. A second bowl is centered on El Nido and is approximately 25 miles in diameter, encompassing most of the East Side Bypass. From 2006 -- 2010 maximum subsidence totaled about 24” S of El Nido. From May 2014 – January 2015, maximum subsidence of about 10” occurred in the same area. In the Sacramento Valley, a single area N of Yolo subsided about 6” from 2006 -- 2010. From May to November 2014, an extended area W of Yolo showed small areas with a maximum subsidence of about 3”; another diffuse area N of Yolo had a maximum subsidence of about 2.5”; and an unusually small intense area of subsidence just W of Arbuckle showed a maximum subsidence of about 5”.
Sinking Cities – Global Cities Sinking into the Ocean
Sinking cities An integrated approach towards solutions (2013).
In many coastal and delta cities land subsidence exceeds absolute sea level rise up to a factor of ten. Without action, parts of Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Bangkok and numerous other coastal cities will sink below sea level. Increased flooding and other widespread impacts of land subsidence result in damage totaling billions of dollars per year. A major cause of severe land subsidence is excessive groundwater extraction due to rapid urbanization and population growth. A major rethink is needed to deal with the ‘hidden’ but urgent threat of subsidence. Deltares presents a comprehensive approach to address land subsidence from the perspective of more sustainable and resilient urban development.
Coral Reefs. Banda Neira, Moluccas, Indonesia. 9 December 2009
Deltas at risk – Infographic – PDF
Engineering Standards for Levees and Floodwalls
The Torino Impact Hazard Scale for Meteroids and Asteroids Striking the Earth
| THE TORINO IMPACT HAZARD SCALE |
Assessing Asteroid And Comet Impact Hazard Predictions In The 21st Century
| No Hazard (White Zone) |
0 |
The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage. |
| Normal (Green Zone) |
1 |
A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. |
| Meriting Attention by Astronomers (Yellow Zone) |
2 |
A discovery, which may become routine with expanded searches, of an object making a somewhat close but not highly unusual pass near the Earth. While meriting attention by astronomers, there is no cause for public attention or public concern as an actual collision is very unlikely. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. |
3 |
A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away. | |
4 |
A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of regional devastation. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away. | |
| Threatening (Orange Zone) |
5 |
A close encounter posing a serious, but still uncertain threat of regional devastation. Critical attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than a decade away, governmental contingency planning may be warranted. |
6 |
A close encounter by a large object posing a serious but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. Critical attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than three decades away, governmental contingency planning may be warranted. | |
7 |
A very close encounter by a large object, which if occurring this century, poses an unprecedented but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. For such a threat in this century, international contingency planning is warranted, especially to determine urgently and conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. | |
| Certain Collisions (Red Zone) |
8 |
A collision is certain, capable of causing localized destruction for an impact over land or possibly a tsunami if close offshore. Such events occur on average between once per 50 years and once per several 1000 years. |
9 |
A collision is certain, capable of causing unprecedented regional devastation for a land impact or the threat of a major tsunami for an ocean impact. Such events occur on average between once per 10,000 years and once per 100,000 years. | |
10 |
A collision is certain, capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean. Such events occur on average once per 100,000 years, or less often. |
Note: the Torino Scale was recently revised according to this recent publication:
Morrison, D., Chapman, C. R., Steel, D., and Binzel R. P. “Impacts and the Public: Communicating the Nature of the Impact Hazard” In Mitigation of Hazardous Comets and Asteroids,(M.J.S. Belton, T.H. Morgan, N.H. Samarasinha and D.K. Yeomans, Eds), Cambridge University Press, 2004.
A graphic of the Torino Scale is also available here:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/images/torino_scale.jpg
Related News Articles
- Revised Asteroid Scale Aids Understanding of Impact Risk (MIT – April 12, 2005)
- Near Earth Objects Scale Helps Risk Communication (NASA – July 22, 1999)
- Dealing With the Impact Hazard: An International Project (IAU – July 22, 1999)
State of the Climate 2014
International report confirms: 2014 was Earth’s warmest
year on record
Climate markers continue to show global warming trend
July 16, 2015
State of the Climate in 2014 report available online. (Credit: NOAA)
In 2014, the most essential indicators of Earth’s changing climate continued to reflect trends of a warming planet, with several markers such as rising land and ocean temperature, sea levels and greenhouse gases ─ setting new records. These key findings and others can be found in the State of the Climate in 2014 report released online today by the American Meteorological Society (AMS).
The report, compiled by NOAA’s Center for Weather and Climate at the National Centers for Environmental Information is based on contributions from 413 scientists from 58 countries around the world (highlight, full report). It provides a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instruments located on land, water, ice, and in space.
“This report represents data from around the globe, from hundreds of scientists and gives us a picture of what happened in 2014. The variety of indicators shows us how our climate is changing, not just in temperature but from the depths of the oceans to the outer atmosphere,” said Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D, Director, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.
The report’s climate indicators show patterns, changes and trends of the global climate system. Examples of the indicators include various types of greenhouse gases; temperatures throughout the atmosphere, ocean, and land; cloud cover; sea level; ocean salinity; sea ice extent; and snow cover. The indicators often reflect many thousands of measurements from multiple independent datasets.
“This is the 25th report in this important annual series, as well as the 20th report that has been produced for publication in BAMS,” said Keith Seitter, AMS Executive Director. “Over the years we have seen clearly the value of careful and consistent monitoring of our climate which allows us to document real changes occurring in the Earth’s climate system.”
Key highlights from the report include:
- Greenhouse gases continued to climb: Major greenhouse gas concentrations, including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, continued to rise during 2014, once again reaching historic high values. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 1.9 ppm in 2014, reaching a global average of 397.2 ppm for the year. This compares with a global average of 354.0 in 1990 when this report was first published just 25 years ago.
- Record temperatures observed near the Earth’s surface: Four independent global datasets showed that 2014 was the warmest year on record. The warmth was widespread across land areas. Europe experienced its warmest year on record, with more than 20 countries exceeding their previous records. Africa had above-average temperatures across most of the continent throughout 2014, Australia saw its third warmest year on record, Mexico had its warmest year on record, and Argentina and Uruguay each had their second warmest year on record. Eastern North America was the only major region to experience below-average annual temperatures.
- Tropical Pacific Ocean moves towards El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation was in a neutral state during 2014, although it was on the cool side of neutral at the beginning of the year and approached warm El Niño conditions by the end of the year. This pattern played a major role in several regional climate outcomes.
- Sea surface temperatures were record high: The globally averaged sea surface temperature was the highest on record. The warmth was particularly notable in the North Pacific Ocean, where temperatures are in part likely driven by a transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation – a recurring pattern of ocean-atmosphere climate variability centered in the region.
- Global upper ocean heat content was record high: Globally, upper ocean heat content reached a record high for the year, reflecting the continuing accumulation of thermal energy in the upper layer of the oceans. Oceans absorb over 90 percent of Earth’s excess heat from greenhouse gas forcing.
- Global sea level was record high: Global average sea level rose to a record high in 2014. This keeps pace with the 3.2 ± 0.4 mm per year trend in sea level growth observed over the past two decades.
- The Arctic continued to warm; sea ice extent remained low: The Arctic experienced its fourth warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. Arctic snow melt occurred 20–30 days earlier than the 1998–2010 average. On the North Slope of Alaska, record high temperatures at 20-meter depth were measured at four of five permafrost observatories. The Arctic minimum sea ice extent reached 1.94 million square miles on September 17, the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. The eight lowest minimum sea ice extents during this period have occurred in the last eight years.
- The Antarctic showed highly variable temperature patterns; sea ice extent reached record high:Temperature patterns across the Antarctic showed strong seasonal and regional patterns of warmer-than-normal and cooler-than-normal conditions, resulting in near-average conditions for the year for the continent as a whole. The Antarctic maximum sea ice extent reached a record high of 7.78 million square miles on September 20. This is 220,000 square miles more than the previous record of 7.56 million square miles that occurred in 2013. This was the third consecutive year of record maximum sea ice extent.
- Tropical cyclones above average overall: There were 91 tropical cyclones in 2014, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82 storms. The 22 named storms in the Eastern/Central Pacific were the most to occur in the basin since 1992. Similar to 2013, the North Atlantic season was quieter than most years of the last two decades with respect to the number of storms.
The State of the Climate in 2014 is the 25th edition in a peer-reviewed series published annually as a special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. The journal makes the full report openly available online.
Cost of Hurricane Katrina Relief and Rebuilding
Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan, Mortgages and Disasters A Ticking Bomb? (2014)
Hurricane Katrina Fact File – Insurance Information Institute (2010)
Towers Watson, Hurricane Katrina: Analysis of the Impact on the Insurance Industry (2005)
After Hurricane Katrina: How federal aid helped the region rebuild, improve
The Budgetary Impact of the Federal Government’s Response to Disasters
September 23, 2013
Recently, the Congress has expressed renewed interest in the cost of the federal response to major disasters. Some of that interest may stem from the Budget Control Act of 2011, which allows some spending for disasters above the limits on discretionary appropriations without triggering sequestration (a cancellation of funding that Congress has previously provided). (CBO recently estimated that this allowance for disaster-related funding, which is based on the 10-year average of such funding excluding the highest and lowest years, is $12.1 billion for fiscal year 2014.) In addition, some Congressional interest may arise from the pace at which CBO generally expects disaster-related funding to be spent—a pace that looks surprisingly slow to some observers. For example, CBO estimated that about one-quarter of the $51 billion in supplemental appropriations for Hurricane Sandy (later reduced to $48 billion as a result of sequestration) would not be disbursed until five years or more after enactment of the bill. That estimate did not imply any judgment by CBO about the appropriateness of such spending; it simply reflected historical patterns for the expenditure of disaster relief funds, most notably the pace of spending following the Gulf Coast hurricanes of 2005. This blog entry addresses some of the questions that CBO has received about these issues.
What was the federal government’s response to the 2005 hurricanes?
Eight years ago, Hurricane Katrina made landfall as one of the strongest storms to affect the United States in the last century. Hurricanes Rita and Wilma followed shortly thereafter. Insured losses from the three storms taken together were estimated by insurance companies to total $57 billion, not including $17 billion in claims paid by the National Flood Insurance Program.
Following those hurricanes, the federal government provided assistance to state and local governments, businesses, and individuals through both automatic increases in spending and reductions in tax collections (for example, as some people whose income fell became eligible for benefit payments and as more people claimed tax deductions for casualty losses) and through deliberate increases in spending and reductions in taxes.
The most significant deliberate response was additional appropriations of more than $100 billion targeted to disaster-affected areas. The largest share of those appropriations ($50 billion) was for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Significant funding also went to the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD, $20 billion), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers ($16 billion), and the Department of Defense ($9 billion).
How quickly were appropriations for the 2005 hurricanes spent?
Today, eight years after Hurricane Katrina, CBO estimates that 93 percent—or $96 billion—of the total appropriations, or budget authority, for the 2005 hurricanes has been expended (see the figure below). Most of that spending occurred in the first few years, but outlays in the fifth year (2010) and beyond account for over 25 percent of the funding provided.
Why were some appropriations for the 2005 hurricanes spent so slowly?
Funding provided by the Congress after the 2005 hurricanes was meant to facilitate not only immediate relief but also long-term recovery. Assistance provided through FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund (DRF) and HUD’s Community Development Fund (CDF) helped meet those two objectives.
CBO estimates that outlays from the DRF for Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma will total about $44 billion by the end of 2013 (see the figure below). Expenditures for operations and human services encompassed much of the immediate relief provided by FEMA, including food and shelter, search and rescue operations, and protection of critical infrastructure. Not surprisingly, most of that spending occurred quickly. In contrast, outlays for infrastructure assistance have occurred more slowly. Debris removal made up the bulk of such expenditures in the first year; afterward, expenditures for reconstruction of public infrastructure (such as bridges, schools, and utilities) and post-disaster hazard mitigation have accounted for most of the spending in that category.
Through the CDF, the Congress provided almost $20 billion to the five states most affected by the 2005 hurricanes for “disaster relief, long-term recovery, and restoration of infrastructure.” About $13 billion of that amount went for immediate relief in the form of direct payments to homeowners and utilities. After an initial delay, that spending occurred fairly quickly (see the figure below). However, outlays for other housing programs, infrastructure, and economic development increased over time through the fifth year after the storms and are expected to continue for several more years beyond 2013.
It is also worth noting that outlays for large-scale construction projects—whether related to disasters or not—naturally occur over several years as costs are incurred. Of the $48 billion allocated through the DRF to areas affected by the 2005 hurricanes, over three-quarters was obligated (that is, made available for expenditure on specific projects) by the end of fiscal year 2006.
Other factors may also tend to slow spending following disasters. For example, efforts to ensure eligibility for benefits and to prevent duplication of benefits (such as a homeowner receiving both a grant and a private insurance payout for the same loss) may lengthen the process for providing individual assistance. Similarly, the availability of matching funds and federal, state, and local laws regarding environmental compliance, zoning, and public comment may slow down infrastructure and other community-level projects. CBO considers all of those factors when projecting the timing of spending from appropriations following disasters.
What spending related to past disasters does CBO anticipate in the future?
CBO expects that federal spending related to the 2005 hurricanes will continue beyond 2013 but will total no more than a few billion dollars annually. That remaining spending will come mainly from the DRF, the CDF, and the Corps of Engineers.
However, even as spending for Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma winds down, spending for activities related to Hurricane Sandy will be gearing up. CBO estimates that spending by FEMA, HUD, the Corps of Engineers, and the Department of Transportation will represent more than 90 percent of all appropriations specifically targeted to respond to that storm, and that the spending by those agencies will total about $5 billion in 2013, nearly $9 billion in 2014, and nearly $8 billion in 2015. As of the beginning of September, FEMA has spent over $4 billion in response to Hurricane Sandy; all other agencies have spent less than $1 billion.
Dan Hoople is an analyst in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division