Baked-In Sea Level Rise

Arctic temperature map

Baked-in sea level rise is sea level that will occur based on the current temperature of the earth and the ocean, without regard to any future warming. The main drivers of sea level rise are melting ice on mountain glaciers, the Greenland ice sheet, and the Antarctic ice cap, plus the expansion of the water in the ocean as the deeper ocean equilibrates with the warmer surface waters. This is a very slow process that will continue for hundreds of years after the temperature of the earth stabilizes.  Recent research shows that the rate of sea level rise is accelerating faster than estimated in the past. This is mainly due to the effect of the rapidly warming Artic on the Greenland Ice Sheet. It is now projected that this melting alone could raise sea level by 10 inches by 2050.

Greenland ice sheet set to raise sea levels by nearly a foot, study finds (Washington Post)

Box, J.E. et al., 2022. Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise. Nature Climate Change. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01441-2.