Catastrophe Modelling and Climate Change – Lloyds Risk Report
While the evidence for climate change is ‘conclusive’, risk models may not account for the phenomenon,says new Lloyd’s research.
The Catastrophe Modelling and Climate Change report finds that while climate change trends can be built into models because historical data is fed into them, the trends are not necessarily reflected in the modelling output. The report, which reviews the latest science, argues that there is a consensus that climate change is driven by human activity, but there is much less agreement on the nature and extent of the change. As a result: “Uncertainties associated with the estimation of both the extent to which climate change is occurring and the resulting change in catastrophe severities… and frequencies, means that the impact can be difficult to account for in risk models.”