Sea Level Rise Threatens Major US Navel Bases

Kelly A Burks-Copes et al., Risk Quantification for Sustaining Coastal Military Installation Asset and Mission Capabilities (RC-1701) (2014). (original link)

Objective

The objective of this project was to develop and test a risk-based methodology to evaluate threats to critical installation assets and quantify the potential loss of mission performance when installation capabilities were impacted by a combination of rising sea levels and coastal storm hazards.

Results

Based on the analysis of NSN’s site-specific vulnerabilities, the project team found sea level rise to be a significant and pervasive threat multiplier to mission sustainability, significantly increasing loadings on built infrastructure, and dramatically increasing risks to system capabilities and service provisioning. Using the framework, the project team was able to identify several critical systems on the study site that were particularly vulnerable and likely to be incapacitated once sea levels rise above 1.0 meter on the site. The results show that the probabilities of damage to infrastructure and losses in mission performance increased dramatically once 0.5 meters of SLR was experienced, indicating a “tipping point,” or threshold, that should be considered when undertaking future planning or operational activities on the installation.

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